Fuel-switching demand is the conversion work your service area can produce: oil and propane homes moving to heat pumps, gas homes adding a heat pump as a dual-fuel system, and electric-baseboard homes moving to ducted or ductless heat pumps. How much of each you can expect depends on two things you do not control, the local fuel mix and the timing of rebates, and one thing you do, which is how early you plan for them.
What it is
This chapter estimates conversion demand for next year in three cases: low, middle and high. It starts from the fuel mix in your province, narrows it to your service area, and then applies the program calendar as of the planning date. The result feeds the demand calendar and tells the marketing budget when to push conversion messaging and when to hold back.
Why the province matters so much
The starting stock of each fuel differs enormously across Canada. In 2023, according to Statistics Canada Table 38-10-0286-01:
| Province | Notable primary heating energy (share of all households, 2023) | What that suggests for conversion work |
|---|---|---|
| Nova Scotia | Oil about 28%; heat pumps primary for about 25% | Large remaining oil stock; heat-pump familiarity already high |
| Prince Edward Island | Oil about 28%; heat pumps primary for about 36% | Oil conversions plus a growing heat-pump service base |
| Alberta | Natural gas about 76% | Dual-fuel and high-efficiency gas replacement more than oil conversion |
| Saskatchewan | Natural gas about 75% | Similar to Alberta, with very cold winters shaping system choice |
| Quebec | Electricity about 70% | Electric-to-heat-pump upgrades, supported by Hydro-Québec's LogisVert |
| Ontario | Natural gas about 58%; propane about 4% | Gas replacement, dual-fuel, and propane or oil pockets in rural areas |
Shares do not add to 100 because some households report heat included in rent or no primary system. Each province page goes further.
Program timing as of October 2026
Programs move demand by months. Two federal changes matter for any plan written now:
- The federal Oil to Heat Pump Affordability program took its last applications on July 31, 2026, according to Natural Resources Canada. Applications submitted before the deadline continue to be processed, so some of that work will still reach installers.
- A federal announcement dated October 8, 2026 set aside $2 billion over eight years, enough for as many as 820,000 heat pump rebates, limited to eligible cold-climate air-source units. Hydro-Québec's LogisVert page says that federal funding begins in 2027 and that its own program continues to process requests normally.
Provincial programs sit on top of these and change often. Always confirm current terms with the administrator before building a campaign around them.
Who it is for
- Companies in Atlantic Canada with a large oil-heated customer base.
- Gas-furnace shops on the Prairies or in Ontario weighing a dual-fuel offer.
- Any heating company deciding whether to train, certify and market a heat-pump line next year.
What's included
- A fuel-mix profile for your province and, where you can supply job records, your own customer base.
- A conversion outlook in three cases, with the assumptions behind each.
- A program calendar listing what is open, closed or announced as of the planning date, with links to each administrator.
- A "waiting period" plan for months when buyers may delay for an announced rebate.
- Checkpoint triggers: what news or data would move you from one case to another.
Timeline and measurement
The outlook is drafted with the demand calendar and revisited at every checkpoint, because program news arrives on its own schedule. The engagement timeline is confirmed in writing in your proposal. Success is measured by conversion enquiries and booked conversions against the middle case, and by how quickly the plan was adjusted when a program changed.
Mistakes to avoid
- Planning on a rebate that has closed. Program pages stay online after intake ends; read the status line.
- Assuming the national picture applies locally. A Halifax market and a Calgary market are different businesses.
- Marketing a rebate before it opens. It can push buyers to wait. Explain the timing honestly instead.
- Forgetting the service tail. Every conversion is a future maintenance customer; feed it into the agreement plan.
For conversion marketing itself, heatpump.marketing covers lead generation in depth. Our guide on oil-to-heat-pump demand after OHPA walks through the method.
Frequently asked questions
Is oil-to-heat-pump work still worth planning for?
In parts of Atlantic Canada, yes. Statistics Canada's 2023 data shows oil as the primary heating energy for about 28% of households in Nova Scotia and in PEI. Program funding is the swing factor, so the plan models the work with and without a rebate.
What happens to demand while buyers wait for the new federal rebate?
Some heat-pump buyers will delay. The October 8, 2026 announcement described rebates of up to $10,000 for households below median income and $2,000 for other eligible homeowners, but that release gave no opening date. The plan treats the waiting period as a dip to fill with other work.
Do you advise customers on which system to buy?
No. Equipment choice, sizing and installation belong to your licensed staff. We estimate how much demand exists and how to market to it.
How accurate is a fuel-switching forecast?
It is a range, not a number. We give a low, middle and high case, state what would move you between them, and check it at each plan checkpoint.
Sources
- Statistics Canada Table 38-10-0286-01: Primary heating systems and type of energy (2026-10-23)
- Natural Resources Canada: Oil to Heat Pump Affordability program (2026-10-23)
- Environment and Climate Change Canada: national heat pump investment announcement (2026-10-08) (2026-10-23)
- Hydro-Québec: LogisVert residential (2026-10-23)