Planning oil-to-heat-pump demand after OHPA

What changed in 2026

Three facts frame every plan written this fall. Check each with its administrator, because programs change.

• OHPA closed to new applicants. Natural Resources Canada lists July 31, 2026 as the last day to apply in the provinces and territories it served directly, and says the program is moving to Environment and Climate Change Canada. Applications submitted before the deadline continue to be processed, so some funded work will still reach installers.
• Co-delivery provinces set their own dates. In New Brunswick, for example, Save Energy NB says registrations for the advance payment closed on June 30, 2026, and upgrades must be completed by March 31, 2027.
• A national rebate was announced. On October 8, 2026, the federal government announced $2 billion over eight years for heat pump rebates of up to $10,000 for households below median income and $2,000 for other eligible homeowners, with no energy audit required. The release gave no opening date; Hydro-Québec describes the funding as beginning in 2027.

Put together, this means a pipeline of already-approved conversions finishing through early 2027, a gap in program support for new oil-heated buyers, and a possible surge once the new rebate opens.

Where the oil-heated homes are

Conversion demand starts with the stock of oil-heated homes. According to Statistics Canada Table 38-10-0286-01, oil was the primary heating energy in 2023 for about 28% of households in Nova Scotia, about 28% in Prince Edward Island and about 13% in Newfoundland and Labrador. In gas-dominated provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan, oil is rare and conversion work is a minor line.

Provincial figures are only a starting point. Your own customer list is far more useful: count how many of your repair and agreement customers still heat with oil, and how old their equipment is. Those are your conversion prospects, and you already have a relationship with them.

Build three cases

Write next year's conversion installs as three numbers, each with its assumption stated.

Worked example

A Nova Scotia heating company has 70 approved conversions still to install, and 400 oil-heated customers in its records. Last year, before OHPA closed, 15% of its oil-heated customers converted with it.

• Low: 70 pipeline jobs + 5% of 400 converting at full price = 70 + 20 = 90.
• Middle: low case + 8% of the remaining 380 converting after a mid-year opening, about 30 more = roughly 120.
• High: low case + 15% of 380, about 57, with more of them earlier = roughly 147.

The plan uses the middle case for budgets, and sets triggers to move up or down. The percentages are illustrations; use your own conversion history.

Plan for the waiting period

The hardest months are likely to be the gap between the pipeline finishing and the new rebate opening. Some buyers will wait for the rebate. A good plan:

• Fills the gap with other work. Service of the installed heat-pump base, agreement visits, and planned replacements of older units.
• Keeps prospects warm honestly. Explain what is announced, what is not yet known, and what is open today. Do not promise rebate amounts or dates that no administrator has published.
• Holds marketing money in reserve for the weeks after an opening is announced, when interest is likely to rise quickly.
• Prepares capacity so that a surge does not overwhelm crews. Decide in advance whether you would add a crew, subcontract or run a waiting list.

Set triggers, not hopes

Write down the events that would move you from one case to another:

• An administrator publishes the national rebate's opening date and process: move toward middle or high.
• A provincial program opens, extends or closes: adjust the affected months.
• Conversion enquiries in a quarter run well below or above the middle case: recalculate.

Check these at each plan checkpoint, and quickly whenever program news breaks.

Province notes worth knowing

• Newfoundland and Labrador: takeCHARGE lists Oil to Electric incentives of up to $22,000 for qualified homeowners, with intake processed on the basis of budget availability. That keeps conversion work moving there even without OHPA.
• New Brunswick: the registered OHPA pipeline must be completed by March 31, 2027. Plan crew time to finish it on schedule.
• Quebec: the provincial Chauffez vert aid for oil and propane conversions ended March 31, 2026, while LogisVert grants for heat pumps continue.
• Nova Scotia and PEI: large oil stocks and large installed heat-pump bases. Confirm current program status directly with Efficiency Nova Scotia and efficiencyPEI before planning around them.

Each province page has more detail as of October 2026.

Common mistakes

• Planning on a closed program. Program pages stay online after intake ends. Read the status line.
• Promising rebate details before they exist. It damages trust when the real terms differ.
• Ignoring the service tail. Every conversion becomes a maintenance customer. Feed conversions into the agreement plan.
• Planning one number. In a year of program change, a single forecast is almost certain to be wrong.

For the full method, see fuel-switching demand by province and the guide on writing an annual growth plan.