The written annual growth plan

What it is, in plain terms

The plan is a decision record, not a forecast. A forecast says what might happen; a plan says what you will do and what you expect as a result. The difference matters in a heating business, because most of the decisions that shape the season, such as hiring, equipment orders and campaign timing, have to be made months before the demand appears.

The finished plan has a short summary page that fits on a wall: twelve monthly columns, with target installs by system type, service visits, agreement members, technician and crew hours available, and marketing spend. Behind that page sit the chapters that justify it.

Who it is for

It fits owners who run a furnace, boiler or heat-pump company with one or more install crews and a service side, anywhere in Canada. It is most useful at three moments:

• A company that has grown past the owner's memory. Once there are more trucks than the owner can track from memory, the year needs to exist on paper.
• A change in the job mix. Adding heat pumps to a furnace shop, or boilers to a gas-fitting business, changes the calendar, the training needs and the margins.
• A rough season. If last winter brought missed calls, stale quotes or an empty July, the plan is where you work out which of those was a capacity problem and which was a marketing problem.

It is not the right tool for a brand-new company with no history. Owners at that stage need a launch plan first.

What's included

The plan has seven sections, each with stated assumptions and a checkpoint date.

1. Baseline. Last year's installs, service calls, average tickets, agreement members and marketing spend, by month, from your records.
2. Demand calendar. Expected work by month and, for the peak, by week. See seasonality and capacity for the method.
3. Agreement base. Current members, an expected renewal rate, new-member targets and the visit schedule. See service-agreement base planning.
4. Fuel-switching outlook. Conversion work your service area is likely to produce, given the local fuel mix and program timing as of the planning date. See fuel-switching demand by province.
5. Capacity plan. Crew and technician hours by month against the calendar, with hiring or subcontract decisions and their deadlines.
6. Marketing budget. Spend by month and channel, tied to capacity. See the marketing budget page.
7. Checkpoints. Four to six dates in the year when you compare actuals with the plan and decide whether to adjust.

How it is built

The work runs in four steps, discussed in person or by video call and handled by phone, text and email.

1. Data gathering. You send what you have: invoice exports, dispatch reports, agreement lists, supplier statements and ad invoices. We tell you what is missing and what can be estimated.
2. First draft. We build the baseline and the demand calendar and send it to you with the questions it raises.
3. Review call. You correct what we got wrong about your market, crews and pricing. This is where most of the useful changes happen.
4. Final plan. The written plan, the summary page and the checkpoint calendar.

The schedule is agreed in writing in your proposal. The main variable is how quickly the data arrives, so it helps to start before the busy season.

How results are measured

A plan is measured by whether it changed decisions and whether its checkpoints caught problems early. Each checkpoint compares three numbers with the plan: installs booked, agreement members active, and marketing cost per booked install. If a number misses by more than the tolerance written into the plan, the plan says what to do next, such as moving budget, pulling a campaign forward or holding a hire.

We do not promise the targets will be reached. Weather, supply and the economy move every heating season. What the plan promises is that you will know where you stand at each checkpoint, rather than finding out in the spring.

Mistakes to avoid

• Planning in annual totals. "300 installs next year" hides the only question that matters in heating: how many in the three weeks after the first frost.
• Treating marketing as the first lever. If the crews are booked solid, more leads only produce longer waits and lost quotes.
• Ignoring program dates. A rebate that closes or opens mid-year can pull demand forward or push it back by months.
• Copying last year with a growth percentage. Last year included your mistakes. A plan should correct them, not compound them.
• Writing it and filing it. Without checkpoint dates on the calendar, a plan becomes a document nobody opens after March.

For the step-by-step method you can use yourself, read the guide on writing an annual growth plan. How the plan is quoted is explained on the pricing page.